A registered report megastudy on the persuasiveness of the most-cited climate messages
Jan G. Voelkel, Ashwini Ashokkumar, Adina T. Abeles, Jarret T. Crawford, Kylie Fuller, Chrystal Redekopp, Renata Bongiorno, Troy H. Campbell, Ullrich K. H. Ecker, Matthew Feinberg, P. Sol Hart, Matthew J. Hornsey, John T. Jost, Aaron C. Kay, Anthony Leiserowitz, Stephan Lewandowsky, Edward Maibach, Erik C. Nisbet, Nick F. Pidgeon, Alexa Spence, Sander van der Linden, Christopher V. Wolsko, Jane K. Willenbring, Neil Malhotra, Robb Willer
Halving global ammonia emissions with cost-effective measures
Xiuming Zhang, Yi Sun, Yujing Gao, Chen Wang, Xia Liang, Shu Kee Lam, Shaohui Zhang, Wilfried Winiwarter, Hans J. M. van Grinsven, Mark A. Sutton, Deli Chen, Baojing Gu
As electric vehicle adoption accelerates globally, fuel tax revenues decline, exposing government budgets without a proposed replacement tax on electric vehicles. We estimate fuel tax transition exposure across 168 countries, demonstrating that relative exposure, in percentage of total government revenues, varies substantially by income level. Our analysis finds that global public revenues from fuel taxes totalled approximately US$900 billion in 2023. Crucially, we show that lower-income countries face disproportionately high exposure, experience frequent debt crises and possess limited institutional capacity to respond, potentially necessitating international support.
Meta-analytical evidence of a selfâother discrepancy in climate change-related risk perceptions
Isak Sandlund, PÀr BjÀlkebring, Magnus Bergquist
In mitigating and adapting to climate change-related risks, unbiased risk assessments are essential. Yet individuals systematically rate their personal risks as lower than those of others, believing themselves to be less at risk than others (that is, a selfâother discrepancy). In a preregistered multi-level meta-analysis, we estimate the overall effect and boundary conditions for a selfâother discrepancy in climate change-related risk perceptions. The synthesis incorporated 60 datasets, comprising 83 effect sizes from 70,337 participants across 17 countries. Results revealed that in 81 of 83 datasets, participants perceived their personal climate change-related risks as lower than others ( d = â0.54, 95% CI [â0.68, â0.39]). This skewness was robust across specific extreme weather-related hazards and general climate change-related risks. Notably, the selfâother discrepancy was less pronounced when comparisons involved specific others (for example, neighbours) or high-risk regions (for example, Asia), and more pronounced when the referents were compatriots or humanity as a whole or when the context was low-risk regions (for example, Europe). These results highlight a critical implication for the general public and a challenge for risk communicators: a widespread misperception, where people perceive personal climate change-related risks as lower than others, may hinder public engagement in mitigation and adaptation efforts.
One Earth
GPT-4o mini: Non-social science research article
Cutting global nitrogen emissions by one-third for balanced and achievable SDGs by 2030
Governing atmospheric oxidation capacity is the key to synergistic air quality and climate gains
Zhaofeng Tan, Xuefei Ma, Keding Lu, Xuan Li, Qindan Zhu, Franz Rohrer, Anna Novelli, Hendrik Fuchs, Andreas Wahner, Lisa Whalley, Dwayne Heard, Steven Brown, Xin Zhang, Yuanhang Zhang
Linking food systems to food intake: A methodology to estimate the agrobiodiversity of human diets
Fernanda Helena Marrocos-Leite, Giovanna Calixto Andrade, EurĂdice MartĂnez Steele, Josefa Maria Fellegger Garzillo, Renata Bertazzi Levy, Jessica Fanzo, Carlos Augusto Monteiro, Neha Khandpur
We examine how coâcreation and collaborative learning have been operationalized in climate adaptation pathway development over the past decade using a systematic review of 36 case study papers. While coâcreation and collaborative learning are increasingly recognized as important for effective adaptation planning, it remains unclear how different approaches can support adaptation goals. Our coâcreation analysis identifies three participation clusters: (i) informationâfocused participation involving primarily oneâway knowledge extraction through interviews; (ii) researcherâmediated participation featuring twoâway engagement through workshops, while researchers maintain process control; and (iii) coâorganized participation where stakeholders serve as coâdesigners with defined leadership roles throughout the process. For collaborative learning, defined as structured knowledge exchange and capacity building among stakeholders, we distinguish between instrumental learning that emerges incidentally from stakeholder interaction versus processâintegrated learning that is explicitly designed and monitored throughout pathway development. Cases with coâorganized participation consistently aligned with processâintegrated learning, suggesting these approaches can be mutually beneficial. Analysis of reported impacts (including policy implementation, followâup research, and capacity building outcomes) reveals that more extensive participation combined with organized learning correlates with a greater likelihood of impacts. This review contributes to the growing body of knowledge on stakeholder engagement in adaptation pathways planning, and while the identified participation clusters and learning approaches offer systematic guidance for methodology selection, they should be viewed as flexible frameworks rather than prescriptive categories, adaptable to specific contexts and planning objectives. This article is categorized under: Integrated Assessment of Climate Change > Participatory Methods of Integrated Assessment Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Learning from Cases and Analogies Integrated Assessment of Climate Change > Integrated Assessment by Expert Panels
Global Environmental Change: Human and Policy Dimensions
Beyond projects: Relational durability and the measurement of climate adaptation success in practice
Stacy-ann Robinson, Mara Dolan, Emma Bouton, J. Timmons Roberts, DâArcy Carlson
Combined benefits of multi-hazard early warnings on human mobility resilience to tropical cyclones
Haiyan Liu, Jianghao Wang, Zhifeng Cheng, Siqin Wang, Laurence Hawker, Jiatong Han, Phil J. Ashworth, Steve Darby, Faith Ka Shun Chan, Jian Liu, Andrew J. Tatem, Shengjie Lai
Representation of global mega-cities and their urban heat island in CORDEX-CORE regional climate model simulations
Gaby S. Langendijk, Jesus Fernandez, Matthias Demuzere, Javier Diez-Sierra, Yaiza Quintana, Lluis Fita, Natalia Zazulie, Rita Nogherotto, Andrea F. Carril, Kwok Pan Chun, Graziano Giuliani, Tomas Halenka, Peter Hoffmann, Luis E. Muñoz, Joni-Pekka PietikÀinen, Diana Rechid, Jiacan Yuan
The EU Nature Restoration Regulation suggests the implementation of green space as nature-based solutions to enhance urban resilience toward increasing climate risks such as extreme precipitation events and floods in Europe. Scenario based approaches enable the evaluation of the potential of specific nature-based solutions to mitigate flood risk in high flood hazard and vulnerable areas. In this study, we explore the flood risks from heavy rainfall and the potential of nature-based solutions implementations in the city of Hannover, Germany. Using the InVEST urban flood risk mitigation model, we modelled the surface runoff from heavy rainfall and assessed the social vulnerability using population and infrastructure data resulting in a flood risk evaluation. To test flood mitigation under nature-based solutions implementations including grass grid pavers and green roofs, we estimated the runoff improvement under three nature-based solutions scenarios following recommendations from the EU Nature Restoration Regulation. Our analysis revealed that Hannoverâs inner-city area is particularly flood-prone and socially vulnerable, while peripheral districts are less affected. The combined risk and vulnerability arise from the surface sealing in built-up areas and their higher population density and associated infrastructure. The scenario results demonstrate flood risk reduction potential when combining different nature-based solutions, though on a limited level calling for more explicit and ambitious regulations at EU, regional and local levels.
Whose city is it? Mapping perceived urban livability with citizen-guided AI
Florencio Campomanes V, Angela Abascal, Lorraine Trento Oliveira, Monika Kuffer, Anne M. Dijkstra, Alfred Stein, Mariana Belgiu
Urban livability is shaped by dominant values, often economic or aesthetic, and power dynamics that often overlook the lived experiences of deprived urban area (DUA) residents. As a result, conventional livability indicators risk reinforcing existing inequalities unless these are grounded in inclusive and participatory approaches. To address this issue, we developed lightweight deep learning models â âAI-votersâ â trained on livability preferences from both DUA residents and city planners, using open-source satellite imagery. Applied in Ghanaâs Greater Accra Metropolitan Area, our approach reduced data requirements to map urban livability by 90% through a two-step urban form sampling strategy that enabled scalable participatory mapping. Training separate âAI-votersâ for planners and DUA residents revealed systematic differences: planners not only disagree among themselves but also consistently assign higher livability scores and overlook the preferences of DUA residents, such as avoiding coastal area exposure. The AI-voters mirrored human-voter behavior based on physical urban features such as greenery and building density, especially when trained on the preferences of DUA residents, demonstrating their potential as scalable proxies for local insights. These results highlight the importance of integrating community perspectives into AI models trained to map urban livability to expose hidden spatial inequities and promote more inclusive urban development.
Urban heatwaves reverse vulnerability-resilience relationships throughout the day
Urban resilience and vulnerability are often paired conceptually, but the dynamics of their relationships are rarely tested with space-time-based data. We tracked the 2019 European heatwave across Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and The Hague, combining hour-by-hour ambulance calls with district profiles identified from demographic, socioeconomic, health, and built environment attributes. We find significant differences in the factors driving vulnerability. The familiar rule of âmore vulnerable, less resilientâ only partially holds: some vulnerable districts showed high resilience at particular times of the day, while seemingly less vulnerable districts showed low resilience. These swings point to the importance of local adaptive behaviours and urban social fabric in shaping dynamic vulnerability-resilience relationships. Our findings call for dynamic, district-specific planning: vulnerability assessments must look beyond averages, and resilience measures should flex with daily rhythms. Effective heatwave policy demands context-aware tools that treat resilience and vulnerability as intertwined, shifting properties of the urban social fabric.
Leveraging circular nutrients to improve the sustainability of peri-urban agriculture
Angelica Mendoza Beltran, Susana Toboso-Chavero, Juan David Arosemena Polo, Adriana Lucia Romero Lestido, Gara Villalba